I can’t make the situation at The Athletic (and certainly not Alex Mather’s crazy math) make any sense unless I look at it this way: the greater fool theory is definitely in play and the investors are absolutely certain that a greater fool is out there.
I wouldn’t bet against them finding a greater fool.
I see really solid people whose work I appreciate whether it be Bill Shea in Detroit or Daniel Kaplan formerly of the SBJ and I’m rooting for them but I don’t love the landscape.
With the greater fool theory it always works out splendidly for the original investors who won’t really care if whoever acquires it writes the whole thing down within a couple years of acquisition. If that happens, the original investors all come out in great shape but it won’t work out nearly as well for the Daniel Kaplans and Bill Sheas.
That’s exactly how I see it playing out but I hope that’s a big swing and miss on my part.